The Decision Frameworks Playbook
A 76-page playbook and 24 worksheets on eleven frameworks — inversion, pre-mortem, base rates, OODA, expected value, second-order effects — and, for each, the decision where it is the wrong tool.
Key Capabilities & Features:
- •Chapter one sorts the decision before any framework is applied, because most bad decisions are good frameworks used on the wrong kind of problem
- •Every framework carries an explicit failure condition — the decision where using it will actively make things worse
- •Worked examples on ordinary decisions rather than famous case studies, since nobody reading this is deciding whether to invade Russia
- •A closing chapter on the decisions no framework improves, including the one you have already made and are looking for permission on
- •Frameworks that belong to nobody — no proprietary system, no certification, no vocabulary you have to buy into
One-time payment • Lifetime access & future updates
What's Inside
8 chapters24 exercisesEvery chapter below is included in the single purchase — 76 pages in total.
- 1
Which Decision Is This
3 exercisesSorting a decision by reversibility, information cost and time pressure before choosing a tool — because most bad decisions are good frameworks applied to the wrong kind. Three worksheets.
- 2
Inversion
3 exercisesAsking what would guarantee failure and then not doing it, which is reliably easier than asking what would produce success. Three worksheets.
- 3
The Pre-Mortem
3 exercisesAssuming the project has already failed and writing the explanation, run properly — including who must be in the room and why the exercise fails without them. Three worksheets.
- 4
Base Rates
3 exercisesWhat normally happens to things like this, before considering why yours is different, and the honest question of what your inside view is actually worth. Three worksheets.
- 5
Expected Value & Asymmetry
3 exercisesRough expected value on decisions people usually take on instinct, and the more important question of whether a bad outcome is survivable. Three worksheets.
- 6
Second-Order Effects
3 exercisesAnd then what — three steps out, including the incentive you are creating and the behaviour your policy will produce that you did not intend. Three worksheets.
- 7
Speed Frameworks
3 exercisesOODA and satisficing for decisions where more analysis costs more than being slightly wrong, and recognising when you are analysing to avoid deciding. Three worksheets.
- 8
When Frameworks Fail
3 exercisesThe decisions no framework improves — genuine value conflicts, low-information novelty, and the choice you have already made and are seeking permission for. Three worksheets.
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Technical Specifications
Architecture & System Overview
Most bad decisions are not made without a framework. They are made with a perfectly good framework applied to the wrong kind of decision.
The Decision Frameworks Playbook is 76 pages and 24 worksheets covering eleven frameworks: inversion, pre-mortem, base rates, expected value and asymmetry, second-order effects, OODA, satisficing and several others. Each one comes with a worked example on an ordinary decision and — more usefully — an explicit statement of the decision where it is the wrong tool.
Chapter one runs before any of them. It sorts the decision you are facing by three properties: how reversible it is, what more information would cost, and how much time you actually have. A reversible decision analysed for three weeks has cost you more than being wrong would have. An irreversible one made on instinct because a framework felt slow is the opposite error. Almost nobody makes this sort explicitly, and it determines which of the eleven you should reach for.
The pre-mortem chapter is precise about how the exercise fails. Run with only the people who proposed the project, it produces a list of external risks and no useful information, because the person who wrote the plan cannot see its flaws on demand. The worksheet specifies who has to be in the room.
And the last chapter is about the decisions none of this helps with. A genuine conflict of values does not resolve into an expected-value calculation. A novel situation has no base rate. And the most common case of all: you have already decided, and you are running frameworks to obtain permission. There is a worksheet for detecting that in yourself, which is the only real defence against it.
Nothing here is proprietary. These frameworks belong to nobody, there is no certification, and there is no vocabulary you have to adopt.
Pairs with The Positioning Playbook and The Pricing Playbook.
Compare with Similar AI Templates
| Specification | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Rating | 4.94(29) | 4.9(40) | 4.92(31) | 4.94(38) |
| AI Models | No AI tool required | GPT-5, Claude Opus 5, Gemini 3.7 Flash | GPT-5, Claude Opus 5, Gemini 3.7 Flash | GPT-5, Claude Opus 5, Gemini 3.7 Flash |
| Formats Included | 76-Page PDF Playbook + 24 Worksheets | PDF Prompt Playbook | PDF Swipe File | 64-Page PDF Playbook + 22 Worksheets |
| Lifetime Updates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Creator Rating | Dr. Lucas Vance (99.2%) | Dr. Lucas Vance (99.2%) | Dr. Lucas Vance (99.2%) | Dr. Lucas Vance (99.2%) |
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Advises founders and operators on validation, pricing and go-to-market. More interested in disproving an idea early than in writing a confident plan.
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Verified User Feedback
The reversal test caught me
I could not write down what would have changed my mind. Three weeks of analysis and the answer was that I had decided in the first hour. Made the decision anyway, but honestly, and much faster.
Permanent plus cheap information
The instruction to always buy the information in that quadrant sounds obvious and I had never once done it. Two afternoons of conversations changed a hiring decision completely.
Every framework has a failure condition
That is what separates it from the usual list of mental models. Knowing when inversion is the wrong tool is more useful than knowing what inversion is.
You will recognise most of these
If you have read widely on decision-making, the frameworks themselves are familiar. The sorting chapter and the failure conditions are the new material, and they are most of the value.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this a list of mental models?
Partly, and if that were all it was you could find the list free. The material you cannot easily find elsewhere is chapter one, which sorts the decision before choosing a tool, and the failure condition attached to every framework.
Are these frameworks proprietary?
None of them. There is no certification, no licensed vocabulary and no system to buy into. Inversion, base rates and pre-mortems belong to nobody, which is one reason they are worth teaching plainly.
Do I need an AI tool?
No. It is a playbook with worksheets to fill in by hand, and several are deliberately slow. If you want prompts that apply this thinking to competitive situations, that is The Art of War Strategy Disciplines.
Will it tell me what to decide?
No, and chapter eight is about why that expectation is the problem. What it does is stop you using a good tool on the wrong kind of decision, and catch the case where you have already decided and are building a justification.